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It’s the last day of summer and I guess we’ve reached the time of the year when smart guys make predictions for next year. Ken Goldberg’s post (re-posted on the DSE blog here) is a fine example of such punditry and it’s difficult to disagree with any of his predications. I even tweeted a comment agreeing with his mobile prediction “Mobile will matter more, but networks will struggle with the best way to utilize it.”

But as I was moving on to my morning coffee, I started to think about Ken’s mobile predication differently. So many industry predictions are so broad they are no better than a fairground tarot card reader. So I really want to stick my neck out with a prediction on mobile….

I predict that in 2011, more DOOH networks will fail BECAUSE THEY ARE STILL EXPERIMENTING WITH MOBILE AND SOCIAL CHANNELS.

Every DOOH network still experimenting with mobile/social solutions risks that their competitors gain traction at their expense. While DOOH networks experiment with mobile and social technologies, their customers (locations, agencies or brands) are moving beyond experimentation. Mobile/Social channels are not just cool features (which is how too many DOOH networks approach them) they are rapidly becoming a universal channel and a method of determining audience engagement and measurement. Mobile/Social channels will undoubtedly become the lingua franca for agencies, brands and location owners to leverage DOOH in a more meaningful way. i.e. If they can’t measure engagement (ideally in real time) it doesn’t exist.

I also predict there’s a reasonable chance I’ll be predicting the same thing in 12 months.

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2 Responses to “The Thing About Predictions On Mobile”

  1. Przemyslaw Rudzki Says:

    Some time ago Ive touched on the similar subject on my blog: “Mobile phones are another direction willingly followed by gold diggers in the industry (which until today bears the unfortunate tag DOOH). According to Gartner’s report concluding the sales of mobile phones in Q4 of 2009, the total number of devices sold was 1.211 billion. The figure is really impressive. It is not hard to see why many treat advertising on mobile phone as a great source of income. The question is whether this is something that should remain within the interest of DOOH. Not necessarily. There are too many big players on the market (i.e. Google, Microsoft, et al.) who keep their eye on the ball. Besides, despite very quick technology progress, mobile phones are still mainly used for conversations or e-mailing.”

    BTW. I love your shakeout slide!

  2. srandall Says:

    Thanks for your comment. Most of the time “mobile” is a bolt on for DOOH and often executed like lipstick on a pig (which is another slide I intend to use!).

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